CASTRIES, St. Lucia – St. Lucians go to the polls on Monday to elect a new government in an election that some political observers say is just too close to call and could even result in a possible coalition.
Prime Minister and UWP leader, Allen Chastanet“The St. Lucia politics of July 26 may not be reflected in the governmental arrangements of July 27,” said Derek Ramsamooj, a regional political strategist and consultant, who had played a significant role in the 2016 general election that brought Allen Chastanet’s United Workers Party (UWP) to power.
The director of the Barbados-based Caribbean Development Research Services (CADRES), Peter Wickham, seems to share that view, noting that “it is going to be close and both sides have an opportunity to drive home a victory in relation to this election”.
Wickham, who has successfully predicted the outcome of general elections in several Caribbean countries over the years, acknowledges that it is going to be a nail-biting election.
“I think it is one that is going down to the wire. We have a whole new set of issues…we have had the crossing of the floor…we have also had the independent Labour run and I think that has set the stage for an interesting election,” he told the “Narrative” a regional television program produced by CaribUpdate.
The more than 160,000 voters will choose from the 45 candidates representing three political parties and three independent candidates in the contest for control of the 17-seat Parliament.
Opposition Leader and SLP leader, Phillip. J. Pierre
“This is an election for the soul of our nation. Don’t let it be taken by those who are guilty of bad governance, by those who do nothing else but send us to hospital, cemetery or jail,” said Aaron Alexander, the deputy leader of the newly formed National Green Party (NGP).
“The rest is now up to you brothers and sisters, kings and queens. Don’t say you didn’t have a choice – let your conscience be your eternal guide,” Alexander noted.
Political commentators here say the election is basically a two-horse race between the UWP and the main opposition St. Lucia Labour Party (SLP) with the latter strategically deciding against contesting two seats – Castries North and Castries Central- where the incumbents are members of the ruling party, but face strong challenges from independent candidates.
In both constituencies, the UWP will come up against candidates that were once colleagues, with the most interesting and controversial being in the Castries North seat, where the former prime minister Stephenson King announced that he was contesting as an independent candidate having accused the governing party of moving away from its moorings.
Stephenson KingKing, 62, who served as the island’s sixth prime minister replacing Sir John Compton, who died in office in 2007, dropped the biggest bombshell in the election, when he announced his decision to leave the party he had been associated with for more than three decades.
In a television broadcast, King, who has represented Castries North for the most of the period he has been in active politics, cited “irrefutable differences” with the ruling party, adding “I find myself unable to recognize the founding principles of my party in the government I am supposedly part of.
“In all good conscience, I cannot go to the people and ask them to endorse (me) for another five years, what has just preceded us and to repose the leadership of this country in the same group of people in some mistaken belief that it will be alright in the morning,” added King, who is hoping that his “blue wave” will have a significant role to play in the island’s future socio-economic development.
Ramsamooj told the Caribbean Media Corporation (CMC) that “this is perhaps the most interesting seat that would reflect the hypothesis in whether issue based politics against traditional political loyalty will emerge.
“It will be difficult, but not impossible for King to emerge (victorious),” he added.
However, Wickham believes that King would find it almost impossible to win the seat and in the end would be just another statistic in the political graveyard in Caribbean politics where independents believe that they could shake the foundations of party loyalty.
“I am not seeing Stephenson King doing well in that election. Stephenson King is fighting an uphill battle quite frankly of his own making. When you think about it he had close to 75 per cent support for the UWP, he is not going to take all of this with him, he will probably not even take half of it, which means it will be a difficult race for him to win”.
Richard Frederick
He said King would have to do much better than Janine Compton-Antoine, Compton’s daughter, who failed to win in his seat in 2016 after she too had left the UWP citing problems with its leadership.
“She did not take half of her father’s support in his constituency on the party that he built when she crossed the floor and if Stephenson King is unable to do better than she did then he too would be a casualty of this election,” Wickham told the television viewers to the region program.
“We have seen this situation in so many Caribbean islands…we have seen this story told over and over where independent candidates believe that they can take support with them,” said Wickham, adding “my feeling regarding Stephenson King is that his impact is resonating at the national level where he is asking people whether or not they continue to have confidence in the government that he supported previously.
“I think that is really where his impact is, but in terms of the constituency level he will struggle in that constituency there is no question about it. If he does manage to pull it off, he will create history regionally, because there is really no example of a person, who has run as an independent in any Caribbean island and has won”.
Former prime minister, Dr. Kenny Anthony, who is among the 15 candidates contesting the election on behalf of the SLP, also shares that view.
In an interview with Liberty FM radio here, Anthony, 70, who served as head of government here on two occasions from 1997-2006 and 2011-16, told radio listeners that “independent candidates do not generally do well” and that King’s decision to contest Monday’s poll as an independent could usher in a new era in St. Lucian politics.
“So if he defies the odds, then he will be making history on his own,” said Anthony, who will be contesting the Vieux Fort South seat against the National Security Minister, Hermangild Francis.
The other seat that is likely to have a significant outcome in the election is that of Castries Central, where the incumbent Sarah Flood-Beaubrun is facing a challenge from attorney Richard Frederick, who was booted out of the UWP in 2014 amid differences with Chastanet.
Frederick, 56, has denied having any accommodation with both King and the SLP, even as he has described himself as “an Independent Labour” candidate.
“We have discussed absolutely nothing with respect to his independent candidacy and mine,” he said regarding King.
“Like Stephenson King, I never have nor did not make an application to the St. Lucia Party. I have never written to the St. Lucia Labour Party to ask them to be their candidate for Castries Central… However, whilst I may not have joined the ranks and file of the St. Lucia Labour Party officially, I have certainly joined them and continue to be with them to achieve two objectives, that is the removal of Allen Chastanet and Guy Joseph in particular out of governance in this country and to see Philip J Pierre is the next prime minister of this country,” Frederick said on his radio program “Can I Help You”.
Let me be clear, these persons are not members of our party, nor have they applied for membership. We have in the past disagreed on several things, but we are in one accord on the clear and present danger of this UWP administration,” said SLP leader, Phillip J. Pierre.
Ramsamooj believes that the Castries Central Seat “will be of interest in the coming hours” acknowledging that it could be pivotal to the formation of a new government after Monday’s poll.
Wickham said it would be interesting to see how King and or Frederick would function in a SLP administration.
“Labour has continued to say that they are not part of the arrangement even though there is a clear accommodation. But I would be curious to see the roles that would emerge regarding Fredericks and King in a Labour administration bearing in mind that the Labour administration would also have Kenny Anthony a former prime minister of some distinguished nature and seemingly Ernest Hilaire who is an aspirant that is seen as being prime ministerial material…and being led by Phillip J. Pierre.
“I would like to be a fly on the wall, if those two seats, or even one of them would make a difference and those individuals would have to barter and say, which side I will go.
“Would they say I will go with who makes me prime minister and indeed which one of them would expect to be prime minister and indeed which of the two parties would be willing to give the leadership of their party to either of these individuals,” said Wickham, adding he hopes this will not be a question that needs to be answered on Monday night.
For his part, Ramsamooj says “political leadership requires a modicum of principles in your character (and) that has to be the essence of St. Lucia politics”.
In the last general elections, the UWP won 11 of the 17 seats with the remainder going to the SLP. Both political consultants believe that there are at least four seats including the Castries Central constituency that could determine the outcome of the poll.
They believe that the Soufriere, Anse La Raye-Canaries and Choiseul constituencies could have an influence on the outcome.
Both parties have released their manifestos each promising the voters that they have the policies necessary to take the country forward in a new environment in which the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic could influence their positions.
“I genuinely believe going around this country that people sense it is not a time to make a change in this country and we take that very seriously and we will work for the people,” said Chastanet, who also acknowledged that the coronavirus (COVID0-19) had seriously affected both the campaign and the programs of his administration.
“At one point we thought that by the end of summer last year we would have been seeing a recovery (but) we went into a third wave, a fourth wave and now a fifth wave and the Delta variant. And so it is very unpredictable, but I am proud of the fact that St. Lucia is one of the few countries in which our borders are open (and) we are co-existing with COVID as best as we possibly can,” said Chastanet, , confident that “I do believe we are going to get in excess of nine seats”
Chastanet said his administration had, among other things, brought the unemployment rate down, increased government revenues, pursued an aggressive program of capital expenditure and created jobs.
But Pierre, also economist, said that St. Lucia, had over the past five years become the most indebted island within the sub-regional Organization of Eastern Caribbean States (OECS).
“It gives me no pleasure to report that among countries in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) our country has suffered the biggest economic decline, 23. 8 per cent for the year 2020. The country’s level of public debt has ballooned under this UWP government to almost four billion (dollars) (One EC dollar=US$0.37 cents) again the highest among countries within the ECCU.
“According to the ECCU, 60 per cent of the increase in the total public debts among OECS countries can be accounted for by the increase in St. Lucia’s Public debts,” Pierre said..
For his part, Pierre believes that the election results will be a “strong statement” to the government that the population has had enough of its divisive policies.
Pierre, who is leading the SLP into an election for the first time, said that he is also confident of regaining his Castries East seat, which he has held for the past five general elections.
“The people will understand that this government has failed them, this government has not delivered on its promises, this government has victimized them, this government has marginalized them and to make matters worse, this government has disrespected them” Pierre told reporters.
Environmentalist, Andre De Caries, who is leading the GNP that is contesting eight seats, said that the party would advocate for more environmentally friendly policies in a new government.
“ I believe post-election, I will be reaching out to likeminded individuals trying to form some sort of group that would guide the development of the country so that when we see the government is doing something that maybe questionable …we have this group that will pressure them to do the right thing,” said De Caries.
The elections are being monitored by observer teams from the Commonwealth, the Organization of American States (OAS) and the Caribbean Community (CARICOM).
